IKE Research and Development Group

Geophysical prediction problem

Problem: The timing, location, and magnitude of natural earthquakes cannot be predicted with sufficient accuracy for effective, pre-emptive action. While scientists can calculate the long-term probability of a seismic event in a specific area, a reliable, short-term forecasting model has remained elusive. 

• Consequences: This inability to predict creates a constant state of vulnerability for populations in seismically active zones, leading to immense and unpredictable loss of life, devastating property damage, and widespread disruption of daily life when a major earthquake occurs.